Migration To Make Melbourne And Perth The Largest Cities In Australia

03 Dec 2013

Under the Bureau of Statistics’ dramatically higher new projections, over the next 50 years, around 10 million migrants will increase Australian population to more than 50 million by 2100and more than 40 million by 2060.

The projections envisage millions more people flocking to Australian capital cities in the next 50 years, strongly due to migration.

The bureau estimates that by 2060, Melbourne will house 8.5 million people, which is double the current number.

By then, Sydney will have 8.4 million which is a surge of 80% from now. Perth will house 5.5 million people which is more than double, and Brisbane will house 4.8 million. Both Perth and Brisbane would be bigger than Sydney is now.

Those four cities, considered as Australia’s migrant magnets, would add 14 million of the 18.4 million extra people envisaged by 2060.

The rest of Queensland will add 2 million, the ACT will double to almost 750,000, but population growth will either reverse or slow to minimal levels by 2050 in much of the rest of Australia - South Australia, regional NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.

Based on various assumptions about birth & death rates, interstate movements and migration levels, which provide a range around its central projection, the bureau comes up with three sets of projections.

The high projections picture an Australia of 70 million by 2100 and 42 million people by 2050.

The driving source of growth in Australia would be Migration. The central projection of the bureau expects a long-run average net gain of 240,000 migrants per year, similar to the present levels.

That already generates 60% of population growth in Australia, but, as the society ages, that would rise to two-thirds over the forecast period.

Every five years after the census, the bureau develops new projections. After the population growth since 2006, it now pictures a much faster rise ahead than it predicted five years ago, especially in Perth and Melbourne.

However, Sydney may hold on to its crown as the biggest city of Australia for longer than people’s speculation.